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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/18 11:53
Caution Dominates Cattle Complex Thursday
Thursday afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released
and the cash cattle market needs to trade cattle.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed ahead of Thursday afternoon's busy
schedule. Before the day is over the fed cash cattle market needs to trade
cattle and the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. July corn
is down 6 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.10.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 171.99 points and NASDAQ is up 387.88
points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 10,400 metric tons
(mt) for 2026 were down 45% from the previous week and 8% from the prior
four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,900 mt), South Korea
(2,400 mt) and Mexico (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 16,100 mt for 2026 -- a
marketing year low -- were down 31% from the previous week and 50% from the
prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (4,100 mt), Mexico
(4,100 mt) and Canada (2,300 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
In anticipation of Thursday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report -- and upon
seeing no trade yet in the fed cash cattle market -- the live cattle contracts
are trading lower into the noon hour. Not to mention, midday boxed beef prices
are also lower, which doesn't help matters either. June live cattle are down
$1.07 at $254.65, August live cattle are down $1.72 at $247.10 and October live
cattle are down $1.47 at $240.37. Bids are on the table in parts of Kansas and
Nebraska, but no trade has developed yet. Asking prices are noted in Nebraska
at $260. But with Thursday being the last trading day of the week because
Friday the markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday, packers need to get
more aggressive.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.23 ($393.27) and select down
$2.28 ($374.98) with a movement of 42 loads (26.26 loads of choice, 7.94 loads
of select, 4.70 loads of trim and 3.46 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Cautious ahead of Thursday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, the feeder
cattle contracts are also trading lower. August feeder cattle are down $0.32 at
$367.10, September feeders are down $0.75 at $364.90 and October feeders are
down $0.70 at $362.15. Placements will likely be a wild card in the Cattle on
Feed report with pre-report estimates ranging anywhere from 89% to 104%
compared to a year ago.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is lower as traders aren't willing to advance the
contracts any further until fundamental support improves. July lean hogs are up
$0.15 at $94.80, August lean hogs are down $0.22 at $96.27 and October lean
hogs are down $0.27 at $81.00. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/17/2026
is up $0.01 at $92.44 and the actual index for 6/16/2026 is up $0.49 at $92.43.
Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.18 with a
weighted average price of $97.32, ranging from $94.00 to $98.00 on 795 head and
a five-day rolling average of $96.64. Pork cutouts total 192.15 loads with
164.64 loads of pork cuts and 27.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down
$1.30, $93.47.
**
NOTE:
The cattle complex has seen record-high prices in the last year. But it's
also been saddled with record-high risk and volatility, among many other
challenges. To better understand these cattle market challenges, join DTN
Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart for the inaugural Beef Industry Exchange
webinar hosted by Senior Livestock Editor Jennifer Carrico at 9 a.m. CDT on
June 24.
In addition to ShayLe's cattle market update, DTN Ag Meteorologist John
Baranick shares how variability and a building Super El Nino might save or doom
U.S. pastures. Due to widespread drought conditions across the U.S., cow-calf
producers may be considering a reduction of the herd. To prepare for this,
University of Nebraska Lincoln Beef Systems Extension Educator Aaron Berger
shares different strategies to set up cow herd rebuilding when it rains again.
Register for the free webinar today:
https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdtn.link%2FBee
fIndustryExchange&data=05%7C02%7CCheri.Zagurski%40dtn.com%7C807fda3c4c664a981f56
08dec80477bd%7Cd945da26f07f451496e79b8f78a743d0%7C0%7C0%7C639168118702874444%7CU
nknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiI
sIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=CiVrIWXNYNj1JBgWhdg1CI8GUKR
aMhxlgI4NiJV2SwE%3D&reserved=0
**
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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